Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are released from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability enabled by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
