Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got something to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
